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The NBC/Marist poll released today shows President Obama up 3 percentage points and Sen. Dean Heller winning by the same margin.
If the screen is lifted to include registered voters, the power of the Democratic machine is evident: Obama's lead doubles and Rep. Shelley Berkley catches Heller.
Some thoughts:
It's a huge sample -- 1,253 registered voters (MOE=+/-2.8 percent) and 1,042 likely voters (MOE=+/-3.0 percent). Lots of cell phone users, too, which is a good sign.
Seventy-one percent of...
A SEPTET OF THURSDAY NUGGETS:
Nugget No. 1 -- The American Action Network is going up with a new ad to protect Rep. Joe Heck in CD3, where he has a lead in nearly every poll but could be nervous about Democratic turnout. The spot is in English and Spanish, and is embedded below. (Heck also is responding to Oceguera's attempt to portray the congressman as weak on rape victims with a dramatic ad from his wife, who was a victim of domestic violence. Will post spot when I can.)
Nugget No. 2 -- I...
UPDATED: The latest statewide numbers are in. Bottom line: Democrats have a 9-point lead, almost 23,000 in raw votes. The state site is still not updating with Washoe mail ballots, where Republicans have had an advantage. Rural numbers are coming in strongly, with nearly a 2-to-1 advantage for GOP (19,975-11,211). It will be interesting to see if high early voting in rural areas, especially Douglas County, means there will be higher-than-usual cow country turnout or fewer rural voters on...
Mitt Romney campaigned in Nevada today for the second consecutive day. The question is: Why?
Any reasonable analysis of the early voting numbers so far shows that the Democratic machine is crushing the Republicans’ Rube Goldberg contraption. In Clark County, the Democrats have a 25,000-voter lead. Even in Washoe County, the Democrats are holding their own.
Why can’t Mitt get the message? As Boz Scaggs once crooned: Why pretend? This is the end.
But is it over here in Nevada?
The answer: Not...
Some quick thoughts on the new Rasmussen and Public Policy Polling surveys for Nevada released today (caveat: both are robopollers and I am still a bit of a robophobe):
Rasmussen: 50-48, Obama
The usually GOP-skewed pollster had a better sample than usual, with 40-35, Democratic edge. His previous surveys here have had GOP advantages, not reflecting registration (D+7) or likley turnout. This one is much closer to reality, inlcuding a reasonable number of minority respondents (32 percent).
But...
UPDATED AT 9:45 AM: The SOS now has the following state numbers after a morning tally (not all numbers in for Day 4): 210,484 have voted by mail or early voting. 48 percent are Democrats and 35.5 percent are Republicans. The raw vote lead is about 21,000 votes. So if 90 percent of partisans are voting for each guy and let's say Romney is winning indies by 10 points (which would be big), he would still be behind by more than 13,000 votes.
After four days of early/mail voting, the Democrats have...
UPDATED: Democrats have a 1,700-vote lead in absentee ballots returned, so the urban county vote lead is above 20,000 (still don't have Washoe mail count.)
Democrats turned out 5,000 more voters in Clark County than the Republicans on Day 3 and the count was about even in Washoe County.
Clark saw another robust day of voting as 30,000 people turned out, bringing the three-day total to just under 90,000 voters -- that's more than 20,000 more than had turned out by this time in 2008.
The numbers...