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Mark Mellman, who nailed Nevada for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in 2010, says Rep. Shelley Berkley is slightly ahead of Sen. Dean Heller.
42-39.
His memo is linked here.
The existence of the poll was first reported by The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza.
A few words about all of these polls on the presidential race in Nevada: Don’t believe them.
Sound familiar? Yes, I was telling you the same thing two years ago when every poll (almost) showed Sharron Angle would be the next U.S. senator from Nevada. That didn’t happen, and all of those polls were wrong for different reasons, which eventually comes down to the same reason:
You hear the cliché all the time that polls are snapshots in time. That is true, but it also highlights the basic problem...
The Democrats now have a larger voter registration edge over Republicans in populous Clark County than in 2008, when the party swept to top-to-bottom victories.
The numbers continue to make Mitt Romney's path to victory very difficult and Dean Heller's road to a full Senate term quite problematic. Barack Obama won Clark by 19 percentage points in 2008 en route to a smashing 12-point statewide win. I doubt he'll do that this cycle, but if he wins by 12 to 14, he will win the state pretty easily...
On Thursday evening in the U.S. Senate debate sponsored by the Nevada Broadcasters Association, Sen. Dean Heller responded to a question about immigration thusly:
"Let’s go back to the question itself. And the key is that I want to make sure that everybody succeeds that’s here in this country -- that’s the goal. That’s why we continue to push English. I think English is important in order to have success here in this country. We talk about immigration reform. I think that’s one thing my...
Congressional hopeful Danny Tarkanian has sent a cease and desist letter to his opponent, Steven Horsford, and TV stations, claiming a new ad defames him and contains a similar claim that won him a previous slander case.
Tarkanian asserts that the ad is not unlike one about his being a resident agent for telemarketers that former state Senate opponent Mike Schneider ran, which resulted in a defamation judgment.
But Horsford did not go nearly as far as Schneider, and the Democrat's attorney...
Remember that Culinary protest I told you about taking place Saturday on the same day as a celebration by the busiensses?
A group of casinos are informing their employees -- a version of what is below was also sent in Spanish -- of their side of the story. Check it out (I agreed to remove any names):
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As you know right after the signing of the current labor contract with the Culinary Union under which you received ($) increases yearly, business downtown including our properties...
Ah, separation of church and state.
"To order voter guides for your church...." That's what this group says at the bottom of a mail piece received today by people in Nevada. It is linked here, so judge for yourself.
So they will hand out voter guides in church? Hmmm.
The Faith and Freedom Coalition, which is bringing Mitt Romney's fellow LDS member Orrin Hatch to Las Vegas this weekend, was founded by Ralph Reed and has a Nevada affiliate.
The mailer here is designed not just to boost Romney,...
The latest from the SOS and Clark County:
The Democrats now are up to a 124,000-voter lead over the Republicans in Clark County, about where they were in 2008. Not that the world is the same, but: Barack Obama won Clark County, 58 percent to 39 percent with the same registration edge.
Of course, Mitt Romney is not John McCain. McCain essentially abandoned Nevada and did not really campaign here. But you get the point.
The statewide lead is now more than 85,000 for the Democrats. It was 100,000...
He might not say so, but Secretary of State Ross Miller's news conference today was designed to head off rumblings, started by the GOP and fueled by tendentious "newspaper," that voter fraud may be occurring in Nevada.
The Republican operatives, having been crushed by the Democrats in voter registration -- 124,000 edge in Clark County and counting -- have intimated that the new voter registrations are somehow phony or, in their more sane moments, not "quality" voters who will really show up....